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Using Logic Models to Predict Risk

impact logic models

If you’re starting a social enterprise or nonprofit, you’ll naturally focus on the impact you plan to have. You’ll predict the effects of your work based on research and past successes in your field, and you’ll imagine the positive outcomes that motivate you to succeed.

You’ll also, however, have to anticipate the potential negative or unexpected outcomes, and predict your ability to successfully execute the business plan and deliver your intended value. You’ll need to account for risk.

Failure, unforeseen circumstances, and unintended consequences are possible in every enterprise. Acknowledging and measuring those risks — both the likelihood that they will happen, and the impact they could have — allows entrepreneurs and investors to plan ahead more safely.

Entrepreneurs aiming for social and environmental impact need to consider the possibility that their work will have unintended or insufficient impact on the planet, on specific groups of people, and/or on society as a whole.

The Impact Management Project has a great resource on impact risk, including a graphic illustrating all of the ways risk can show up in an enterprise.

Graphic created by the Impact Management Project.

As you can see, the types and dimensions of risk break it down much more specifically than just saying, “Something could go wrong” (or naively saying, “We’re going to absolutely crush this”).

For example, an ice cream shop that plans to hire and train people with barriers to employment could face typical business risks — maybe there’s an unusually cool summer that drives down ice cream sales, or a mold problem that forces them to relocate.

But a social enterprise also faces specific risks related to their intended impact. The shop faces stakeholder participation risk if they put together a training curriculum without consulting people affected by the problems they’re trying to solve, resulting in a program that doesn’t effectively meet their employees’ needs. They face unexpected impact risk if they fail to account for the heavy electricity usage and carbon footprint of their industrial freezers and other equipment, leading to a negative environmental impact.

By anticipating those potential outcomes, whether they are unconsidered social or environmental externalities or consequences of the ice cream shop’s operations, the entrepreneurs can proactively minimize avoidable risk and become resilient in the face of unavoidable risk.

Social enterprises can look for and identify those specific types of risk as part of creating their logic models, which we discussed in our last post. As a social entrepreneur maps out their plan for using specific activities to achieve specific impacts, they can pinpoint risk at each stage and show how they will protect against it.

One of Ecotone’s goals is to help our clients recognize and account for risk as part of their business models, so that they can strategically minimize or offset it.

Further reading:

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Designing Your Impact: Logic Models for Entrepreneurs and Investors

network model

When social entrepreneurs launch businesses with the goal of creating impact, they have to determine how their business model connects to their mission. They must decide what the business does on a daily basis, how the business makes money, and how the operations and cost structure relate to the impact.

An organization’s logic model describes its intended impact, along with the intervention the organization’s leaders have chosen to achieve that intended impact. Entrepreneurs often use tools such as the Business Model Canvas to map out their activities, value proposition, and target audiences. However, an understanding of how costs and impact value are created is best developed using what is known as a logic model.

Logic models have traditionally been used by nonprofits and international aid organizations, but the convergence of social impact and business has seen them used by organizations such as the Impact Management Project to organize the costs and activities that make up a social enterprise.

Logic models lay out:

  • Inputs — the infrastructure, materials, and labor needed to make the organization run
  • Outputs — the products and/or services the organization creates, as well as the externalities, or side effects and unintended products of their work
  • Outcomes — the results the organization produces, from long-term stability for its employees to increased traffic and economic growth for its neighborhood

For example, a new organization might determine that their mission is to help people with developmental disabilities become independent. They look up research on the most important skills to teach people with disabilities, and review outcomes from similar programs around the country and the world. To achieve their mission, they choose as their social enterprise an ice cream shop, hiring and offering job skills training to adults with disabilities.

And now for one of Ted’s food service analogies…

In many ways, this ice cream shop is very similar to a conventional for-profit business. They rent a space that meets the needs of an ice cream shop and market to the public. They purchase large equipment such as mixers and freezers, and buy supplies including ingredients and packaging. They handle cash and follow health code requirements. They serve delicious ice cream to customers.

However, there are a few unique expenses that the social enterprise ice cream shop has to account for. Those include the cost of training materials, staff time and gas money to give employees rides home or to appointments, and other concerns specific to the population that the business serves.

One of the goals when creating a logic model — and our goal at Ecotone when we help social enterprises develop their logic models — is to account for those extra expenses and find sustainable ways to fund them. Laying out inputs, outputs, and outcomes in one blueprint allows organizations to attribute their impact to specific inputs. That, in turn, allows them to look for ways to fund those inputs so they can continue growing their impact.

Further reading

Get the basics:

Dig deeper:

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Defining Your Impact: Using the UN Sustainable Development Goals to Classify the Impacts of Your Social Enterprise

You’re launching a social enterprise. You run a high-impact nonprofit. Or you work at a for-profit corporation, but want to think more critically and strategically about proactive, positive impact.

You want to do “good” — have a positive impact and effect change. But how do you define what “good” means? How do you communicate the positive impact of your organization to investors that are aligned with your cause?

This set of 17 targets, also known as “the global goals” or just “the SDGs,” was agreed upon and adopted in 2015 as part of the United Nations’ 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. The SDGs offer a high-level categorization of impact, and outline the key targets and measures identified for investment in each area to achieve the global goals. Because it’s an internationally agreed-upon list, it’s one of the closest things we have as a society to a consensus definition of areas of positive impact and need.

At Ecotone, like many organizations and institutions around the world, we use the Sustainable Development Goals as a framework to help our clients classify their areas of impact. For example, let’s say there’s a bakery that offers employment and job skills training for formerly incarcerated people. That supports SDG 8, Decent Work and Economic Growth, and SDG 16, Peace, Justice and Strong Institutions. Tying their work to those SDGs helps the bakery quickly communicate their goals to the public, their customers, and potential investors. An investor or grantmaker who wants to invest in peace and justice can instantly identify the bakery as being aligned with their mission.

As the SDGs continue to be used by organizations around the world, we’d love to see it become a more widely understood shorthand for impact. That bakery hiring formerly incarcerated people could display the icons for SDGs 8 and 16 in their front window and on their website — almost like medieval shields displaying the icons of each clan.

Then, when that bakery is ready to measure the impact they’re having, they can refer to the SDGs to guide which metrics they should be paying attention to. Rather than saying, “We’re a nonprofit, of course we’re doing good,” organizations can — and should — provide evidence that their work is achieving progress in an area determined to be important to society as a whole. Using the SDGs to categorize social good is the first step to measuring and accounting for impact, and to using the evidence of impact to design programs and business models.

Our work to help organizations account for their impact — and create business models to fund, scale, and sustain that impact — starts with connecting their work to a global definition of good.

Have you thought about how your work connects to and fulfills the Sustainable Development Goals? Which of the 17 goals are most relevant for your organization?

Further reading

Get the basics:

Dig deeper:

SDGs usage:

There has been some misunderstanding about using them for fundraising. This is directly from the usage guidelines:

“The SDG logo and 17 SDG icons may be used for both informational (primarily illustrative) and fundraising purposes.”

“Fundraising uses are those that are intended to raise resources to cover costs of activities in support of the SDGs.”

http://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/UN-Guidelines-for-Use-of-SDG-logo-and-17-icons-December-2017.pdf

 

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Ecotone Analytics Recognized at 2017 Environmental Initiative Awards

Better Futures Minnesota, project partners win 2017 Environmental Initiative Award for sustainability efforts

Annual Awards program celebrates businesses, community organizations, and governments who achieve sustainability outcomes through partnership

(Minneapolis, MN)– Nonprofit Better Futures Minnesota, along with many of their partners, are being honored on May 25 at the 25th Anniversary Environmental Initiative Awards for their work to increase the amount of materials being reused or recycled in construction and demolition waste.

Through their work, in 2016 alone they diverted over 1570 tons of waste from construction projects that would have otherwise ended up in landfills.

Reusing and recycling construction and demolition materials not only has a positive impact on the amount of waste in our landfills, but also reduces emissions from those landfills. Last year, they estimate that they avoided 750 metric tons of greenhouse gas emissions.

“In just two years of consistently gathering research, we’ve been able to quantify the environmental impact of deconstruction—reusing and recycling building materials—compared to the common practice of demolishing a building and sending the materials to a landfill.  The results are phenomenal. Reduction of Greenhouse Gases, creation of jobs, and a boost to the local economy are all benefits from this new and innovative technique,” said Thomas Adams, Better Futures president and CEO.

The organization, which works to provide jobs, training and resources to men who have had a history of incarceration, homelessness, poverty, and untreated mental and physical health challenges, worked with project partners like the City of Minneapolis, Hennepin County, the State of Minnesota’s Legislative-Citizen Commission on Minnesota Resources, the Minnesota Pollution Control Agency, ReUSE Minnesota, Ectone Partners and more to develop best practices for their workforce to reuse and recycle materials.

“This business model exemplifies the triple bottom line, which is something every organization should strive toward,” said Mike Harley, Executive Director of Environmental Initiative. “The co-benefits that come to life in this project—improving air quality, helping our neighbors, and creating a profitable business—could have only been achieved with a diverse group of perspectives coming together.”

In Minnesota, more than 80 percent of the 1.6 million tons of construction and demolition waste was landfilled in 2013, according to the Minnesota Pollution Control Agency. Through deconstruction, Better Futures Minnesota can recycle and reuse at least 85 percent of materials.

In honor of Environmental Initiative’s 25th Anniversary, four organizational and two individual awards will be presented on May 25, 2017 at the Nicollet Island Pavilion.

About the Environmental Initiative Awards

Environmental Initiative is a nonprofit organization that builds partnerships with business, government and nonprofit leaders to develop collaborative solutions to Minnesota’s environmental problems. The organization has honored collaborative environmental projects through their annual awards program since 1994. www.environmental-initiative.org

 

 

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Ecotone Analytics Works with Junket to Measure CO2 Impact

JunketWebBanner

Thursday, May 11, 2017

Minneapolis retailer sets sights on revolutionizing retail through reuse

The next evolution for an environmentally-oriented Minneapolis vintage shop is playing out this spring as Junket: Tossed & Found prepares to reduce its square footage by 25% to welcome a new non-profit restaurant into the building. The shop’s owner, Julie Kearns, cited the change as a strategic decision to bring food to a community that’s been clamoring for more walkable options.

Kearns and Junket are also now leveraging the upcoming change in floor plans to involve their community in establishing a carbon-informed retail assortment. The goal: to combine the ease of traditional retail with the environmental virtue of a thrift store.

In order to help her customers better understand the specific environmental benefits of reuse – and to better understand them, herself – Kearns contracted with Minneapolis based Ecotone Analytics, GBC in 2015 to begin tracking carbon dioxide emissions avoided by consumers who purchased the shop’s products instead of making similar new purchases.

To the best of Kearns’ knowledge, Junket is the only retailer in the country undertaking such product-specific analysis, approaching the project with consumer cognition in mind while documenting weights and materiality of items as small and discrete as paper clips.

Two years later, she’s reached a data-driven conclusion: there’s no environmentally virtuous alternative to reuse, period.

Kearns has enlisted Minneapolis-based B-Corp Software For Good to begin prototyping a technical tool to enable a social supply chain for reused goods. She has also launched a Kickstarter campaign to finalize the business model before directing her full attention upstream.

“Junket is committed to serving as a community resource and force for good,” said Kearns. “We’re working to provide high quality ease of access to the most sustainable goods possible: those that already exist.”

 

KICKSTARTER ends June 3: help us revolutionize retail through reuse!